Understanding the Probability in Blackjack
So, you're at the blackjack table with cards in hand and chips in front of you. As you wait for the dealer to show their upcard, consider this: Do you know whether you're about to win or lose?
Published July 19, 2024.
When you play blackjack, it's helpful to know the probability of winning or losing based on the cards you're dealt and the dealer's upcard. These odds can guide you in deciding when to hit, stand, double down, or split, which can help you win more often and lose less money in the long run.
Below, we explore blackjack probability, the factors that influence your odds, and the strategies you can use to tip the scales in your favour.
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What Are Your Odds of Getting Blackjack?
In a single hand of blackjack, you have about a 42% chance of winning, while the casino has a slightly higher chance of about 49%. The rest of the time, it's a tie. These odds can change a bit depending on the specific rules of the game and how many decks of cards are used.
Getting dealt a blackjack (an ace and a 10-value card) straightaway is a bit harder. In a game with just one deck, you have about a 4.83% chance of getting a blackjack. With more decks, this chance goes down to around 4.75%.
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4 Factors That Influence Blackjack Odds
Several factors can influence the odds you face when playing blackjack. While the game is still based on chance, understanding these elements can help you make more informed decisions at the table:
Player Strategy
A basic strategy that tells you when to hit, stand, double down, or split can help lower the house edge.
For instance, a perfect basic strategy can bring the house edge down to about 0.5%, while playing without any strategy can bump it to around 2-4%.
Game Rules
The specific rules of the game, like how many decks are in play, whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17, and the payout for getting a blackjack (e.g., 3:2 vs. 6:5), can change the house edge.
Example: In European Blackjack, where the dealer doesn't take a hole card until after the player is done, the house edge is about 0.62%. But in American Blackjack, where the dealer checks for blackjack before players act, the house edge is often lower, around 0.5%.
Casino Regulations
The parameters set by the casino can also affect the odds. If the dealer is required to stand on soft 17, it's better for players. But if the dealer has to hit on soft 17 or if there are limits on doubling down and splitting, the casino may have a bigger advantage.
Blackjack Variants
Games with fewer decks, like single-deck blackjack, usually give players better odds because the house edge is lower. With fewer decks, it's easier to count cards and guess what might come next. But casinos often balance this out by offering less favourable rules in single-deck games, like smaller payouts for getting a blackjack.
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How Hit, Stand, Double Down, and Split Decisions Impact Blackjack Odds
When playing blackjack, you'll need to decide when to hit, stand, double down, or split. Each choice can affect the outcome of a hand in different ways:
- Hit: Ups your odds of making a weak hand better, but also makes busting more likely.
- Stand: Locks in your hand's value, so you're less likely to bust, but you might lose to the dealer's stronger hand.
- Double down: Boosts your potential payout by doubling your bet when you've got a solid starting hand, but you could lose more if the next card doesn't go your way.
- Split: Gives you two chances to win by splitting a pair into separate hands, but you'll need to bet more and risk losing it all.
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Odds of Busting on a Hit
As your hand value increases, so does the chance of drawing a card that could push your hand over 21. The table below illustrates the probability of busting for each hand value:
| Hand Value | Chance of Busting |
|---|---|
| 11 or lower | 0% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 19 | 89% |
| 20 | 92% |
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Dealer's Approximate Probability of Busting Based on Their Upcard
When deciding what to do in blackjack, you've got to consider both your own hand and the dealer's upcard—that's the card the dealer has facing up at the beginning of the round. The dealer's odds of busting change depending on which upcard they're showing, and this can help guide whether you should hit, stand, double down, or split.
Here's a look at how the dealer's upcard can affect their chances of busting:
| Dealer Upcard | Chance of Busting |
|---|---|
| Ace | 17% |
| 2 | 35% |
| 3 | 37% |
| 4 | 40% |
| 5 | 42% |
| 6 | 42% |
| 7 | 26% |
| 8 | 24% |
| 9 | 23% |
| 10 | 23% |
How to Improve Your Blackjack Odds
While blackjack is a game of chance, skilled players can employ various methods to increase their odds of winning and minimize losses. The three key strategies that can help you improve your blackjack game are:
Basic Strategy
A basic strategy is a mathematically optimal set of rules for playing any hand dealt. It considers your total hand value and the dealer's visible card to recommend the best possible move (hit, stand, double down, or split).
When you apply it correctly, the basic strategy can reduce the house edge to around 0.5%. It's the foundation for all blackjack players and helps them make optimal decisions to maximize their chances of winning.
Card Counting
Card counting involves keeping track of high and low cards dealt to predict the likelihood of high or low cards being distributed next. The most popular system is the Hi-Lo count, where players add or subtract values based on the cards seen.
This strategy is most effective in single-deck or low-deck games and can give skilled counters a 1-2% edge over the house.
By counting cards, players can increase their bets when the count indicates a favourable deck composition and decrease their bets when it's unfavourable.
Bankroll Management
Bankroll management involves setting limits on how much to bet and how much to lose or win before ending a playing session. This approach can help you manage your funds effectively to avoid significant losses and enjoy longer playing sessions.
While bankroll management doesn't directly change the game's odds, it's essential for mitigating losses and ensuring that you can withstand the inherent variance of blackjack. Effective bankroll management can protect you from losing your entire stake in a short period.
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How well each strategy works for you depends on a few things:
- Your skill level
- The specific rules of the game you're playing
- The number of decks in play
Blackjack Odds: Play Smarter, Not Harder
The probability of winning a blackjack game depends on the variant, how many decks you’re using, your hand, the dealer’s upcard, and their decision. To increase your chances of winning, spend time practicing and understanding the different game variants and rules. The more you play, the better you’ll become at making real-time decisions based on the dealt cards.
But as with any form of gambling, approach blackjack responsibly and within your means.
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